Big Tech Earnings Week: What to Watch (Jan 28-29)

Three of the biggest names in tech report earnings this week. Microsoft and Meta on Tuesday (Jan 28), Apple on Wednesday (Jan 29). Together, these companies represent over $8 trillion in market cap—what they say will set the tone for 2026.

Here's what to watch for each one.

---

Microsoft (MSFT) — Tuesday, Jan 28 After Close

The Story: Microsoft has been sliding since late November—down about 11-12% from its highs. The irony is thick here: Satya Nadella himself declared "SaaS is dead" in late 2024, and now investors are wondering if AI will eat Microsoft's own enterprise software business.

The concern is that AI agents could replace per-seat software subscriptions—the exact model that funds Microsoft 365. According to CNBC, Anthropic's recent launch of Claude Cowork (an enterprise AI agent) amplified fears that traditional software seats are at risk. Meanwhile, reports from The Information suggest Microsoft salespeople have been cutting forecasts for Azure AI products, and surveys show many enterprise workers prefer generic ChatGPT over Microsoft Copilot. Cloud software stocks broadly (Salesforce, ServiceNow, Adobe) are down 14%+ in 2026.

Microsoft needs to prove that AI is a growth driver, not a disruptor of their own business.

What Analysts Expect:

• EPS: $3.86-$3.92 (up ~20% YoY)
• Revenue: ~$80 billion (up 15% YoY)
• Azure growth: ~37% in constant currency

What to Watch:

1. Azure numbers — This is the main event. Anything above 37% growth is bullish. Below 35% and the stock could sell off.
2. Copilot adoption — Are enterprises actually using it? Any concrete revenue or user numbers would help counter the "Copilot is underperforming" narrative.
3. Guidance — They've beaten estimates 13 quarters in a row. The reaction depends on forward guidance, not the beat.

Recent Context: Last quarter they beat on both EPS ($4.13) and revenue ($77.67B), but the stock dropped 3% the next day on soft guidance. Don't assume a beat means the stock goes up.

Analyst Sentiment: 32 Buys, 2 Holds. Strong Buy consensus. Average price target around $630—but the stock needs a catalyst to get there.

---

Meta (META) — Tuesday, Jan 28 After Close

The Story: Meta is the advertising machine—Facebook and Instagram ad revenue drives everything. But the bigger story heading into this earnings is the AI leadership shake-up.

In late 2025, Meta hired Alexandr Wang, the 29-year-old billionaire co-founder of Scale AI, as its new Chief AI Officer—reportedly paying $100 million signing bonuses to poach AI talent. The move pushed out Yann LeCun, one of the "godfathers of AI," who quit in November and publicly called Wang "young and inexperienced." LeCun warned of a staff exodus: "A lot of people have left, a lot of people who haven't yet left will leave." Meta's AI retention rate sits at just 64%, well below Google DeepMind's 78%.

The backdrop: Meta was accused of gaming benchmarks to make its Llama 4 model look stronger. According to LeCun, Zuckerberg "basically lost confidence in everyone who was involved" and sidelined the entire Gen AI organization.

What Analysts Expect:

• EPS: ~$8.20 (estimates vary)
• Revenue: $56-59 billion (guidance range, consensus ~$56.6B)

What to Watch:

1. AI strategy commentary — How does Zuckerberg address the leadership changes and talent concerns?
2. Ad revenue growth — Q3 showed 26% YoY growth in ad revenue. Can they maintain that momentum?
3. Reality Labs losses — Investors have accepted the metaverse bet, but how much are they burning?
4. 2026 CapEx guidance — Management already warned that 2026 spending will be "notably higher" than 2025.

Recent Context: Q3 revenue hit $51.2B with ad impressions up 14% and price per ad up 10%. The ad formula is working. The question is whether the AI turmoil distracts from execution.

Analyst Sentiment: 44 Strong Buys, 3 Moderate Buys, 8 Holds. Still bullish on the numbers—but the AI drama adds uncertainty.

---

Apple (AAPL) — Wednesday, Jan 29 After Close

The Story: Apple's fiscal Q1 (October-December) is always their biggest quarter—holiday iPhone sales. But the bigger story this time is AI. On January 12, Apple announced a multi-year partnership with Google to power Siri with Gemini AI—a major shift after months of criticism that Apple was falling behind in the AI race.

The deal means Apple gets access to Google's most capable AI models while maintaining privacy through on-device processing and Private Cloud Compute. Apple also hired Google Gemini's former head of engineering (Amar Subramanya) to lead the effort. According to reports, Apple will pay roughly $1 billion per year for the partnership.

What Analysts Expect:

• EPS: $2.65-$2.67 (up ~10% YoY)
• Revenue: $137-$138 billion (up 10-11% YoY)

What to Watch:

1. Gemini/Siri commentary — How is the Google partnership progressing? When will users see the upgraded Siri?
2. iPhone revenue — Management guided for double-digit iPhone growth. Did they deliver?
3. China sales — Apple's been losing ground to Huawei. Any signs of stabilization?
4. Services revenue — App Store, iCloud, Apple TV+. Growth above 12% YoY is bullish.

Recent Context: Q4 2025 hit $102.5B revenue (a record for that quarter). Tim Cook said he expected a record-breaking Q1. The bar is high—but the Gemini partnership gives Apple a new AI narrative.

Tariff Note: Apple paid $1.1B in tariffs last quarter and expects $1.4B this quarter. Worth monitoring but not the main story.

Analyst Sentiment: More bullish after the Google deal. JP Morgan raised target to $305, Evercore to $300. The AI story finally has legs.

---

The Big Picture

This week isn't just about three companies—it's about the themes that matter for 2026:

1. AI monetization — Microsoft Copilot, Meta AI, Apple Intelligence. Who's actually making money from AI?
2. Cloud growth — Azure growth is the main event for Microsoft. Can they maintain 37%+ in constant currency?
3. Consumer spending — iPhone sales tell us about the holiday quarter and consumer health.
4. CapEx reality check — All three are spending heavily on AI infrastructure. At some point, investors want to see returns.

If these companies beat and guide higher, expect the market to rally. If they beat but guide cautiously (like MSFT did last quarter), don't be surprised by muted reactions.

Note: Amazon reports February 5, not this week.

---

Key Dates

---

How StockGenie Can Help

Earnings season moves fast. If you want to track these stocks or set alerts for key price levels, StockGenie makes it easy:

• "Alert me if AAPL drops below $220 after earnings"
• "What's the technical setup for MSFT?"
• "How does META's valuation compare to GOOGL?"

Ask questions in plain English, get answers with real data. No more scrambling through tabs during earnings week.

---

This is not financial advice. Do your own research before making investment decisions.